Show In 2021, coal-fired electricity generation reached a global all-time high. Image: Unsplash/Johannes Plenio
 Discover What's the World Economic Forum doing about the transition to clean energy? License and Republishing World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License, and in accordance with our Terms of Use. The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum. Global Agenda The Agenda WeeklyA weekly update of the most important issues driving the global agenda Highlights Russia-Ukraine war uncertainty affects projections Coal fleet faces fuel-delivery constraints US coal production is projected to rise 3% in 2022 even as coal-fired generation decreases as domestic utilities seek to replenish depleted stockpiles, the US Energy Information Administration said May 10. Not registered? Receive daily email alerts, subscriber notes & personalize your experience. Register Now "The forecast increase occurs despite our expectation that coal use in the power sector will decline," EIA said in its May Short-Term Energy Outlook. "We expect rising coal production will replenish electric power sector inventories in 2023 that were depleted during 2021." The EIA projects 2022 coal production at 598.3 million st, revising downward their previous month's estimate by 3.7% partly because of widespread logistical issues preventing coal-market movements. In 2023, production is forecasted at 605.2 million st, a 4.4% downward revision from the prior month's estimate. "Although exports and inventory builds contribute to rising coal production in the forecast, labor shortages, rail congestion, and challenges obtaining equipment are expected to limit production gains," the EIA said.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine also contributed to the EIA's energy-production forecasts as trade flows have been interrupted by the conflict. "A wide range of potential macroeconomic outcomes could significantly affect energy markets during the forecast period," EIA said. "Major factors driving energy supply uncertainty include how sanctions affect Russia's oil production, the production decisions of OPEC+, and the rate at which US oil and natural gas producers increase drilling." Exports are projected to rise amid strong global coal demand and pricing, in part because of the war, but logistical constraints will limit production despite higher prices, the EIA projected. Coal exports are estimated at 85.7 million st in 2022 and 88.8 million st in 2023. Coal electricity consumption is estimated at 486.9 million st in 2022 and 466.7 million st in 2023. Total coal consumption is forecast to be 531.2 million st in 2022 and 510.2 million st in 2023. Coal generation is projected at 21.3% in 2022 and 20.3% in 2023. EIA estimates that nominal delivered coal prices will average $1.98/MMBtu in 2022 and $1.95/MMBtu in 2023.
Natural gas generation is projected at 36.8% in 2022 and 36.1% in 2023. Henry Hub natural gas spot prices are estimated to average $7.70/MMBtu in 2022 and $4.93/MMBtu in 2023. Dry gas production is estimated at 96.69 Bcf/d in 2022 and 101.71 Bcf/d in 2023. LNG exports are estimated at 11.98 Bcf/d in 2022 and 12.63 Bcf/d in 2023. Natural gas for power consumption is projected at 31.52 Bcf/d in 2022 and 31.29 Bcf/d in 2023. "Despite significantly higher natural gas fuel costs this year compared with last year, we do not expect an increase in electricity generation from coal-fired power plants, which have in the past acted as a primary substitute for natural gas in the power industry," EIA said. "Along with the continued retirement of coal-fired generating capacity, the remaining coal fleet has been facing constraints in regard to fuel delivery and coal stocks."
How much of coal is left in the world?Coal is abundant – there's over 1.06 trillion tonnes of proven coal reserves worldwide. This means that at current rates of production, there is enough coal to last us around 132 years. The biggest reserves are in the USA, Russia, China, Australia and India.
How much coal do we use in 2022?Based on current economic and market trends, global coal consumption is forecast to rise by 0.7% in 2022 to 8 billion tonnes, assuming the Chinese economy recovers as expected in the second half of the year, the IEA's July 2022 Coal Market Update says.
How many years left of coal do we have left?Based on U.S. coal production in 2021, of about 0.577 billion short tons, the recoverable coal reserves would last about 435 years, and recoverable reserves at producing mines would last about 21 years. The actual number of years that those reserves will last depends on changes in production and reserves estimates.
How much coal do we use per year?
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How much coal is left in the world 2022
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